After the year, the inertia of pork demand has fallen, and this week's pig prices have dropped significantly

According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on February 23, the average price of pork in the national wholesale market for agricultural products was 20.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 6.4% compared to last Sunday's 22.37 yuan/kg (February 18), and a decrease of 8.9% compared to February 9's 22.96 yuan/kg. The average price for this week is 21.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 6.6% compared to the average price of 22.8 yuan/kg in the week before the holiday.

This week, domestic pig prices have mainly decreased. According to data from China Pig Farming Network, on February 23rd, the price of live pigs (in three yuan) was 13.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 15.2% compared to last Friday's (February 16th) price of 16.15 yuan/kg. From the weekly average price, the average price of live pigs this week is 14.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 10.3% compared to last week's average price of 16.06 yuan/kg, and a decrease of 7.7% compared to the previous week's average price of 15.6 yuan/kg.

Recent pork and pig prices. Watchmaking Pengpai News

According to the monitoring of Zhuochuang Information, before the Spring Festival, with the completion of stocking by slaughter enterprises, the bearish sentiment in the market has intensified, leading to a high decline in pig prices. During the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are weak, and the fluctuation space of pig prices is relatively limited. After the holiday, there was a significant decline in terminal demand, resulting in slow product delivery. The operating rate of slaughter enterprises remained at a low level, while the pace of slaughter by breeding units gradually returned to normal. The decrease in the weekly average price of live pigs this week is mainly due to abundant supply, but the slow recovery of demand after the holiday has resulted in oversupply and a decline in prices. This week, the national pig trading average continued to rise. Zhuochuang Information monitored that the average trading weight of live pigs nationwide was 122.06 kilograms, an increase of 0.11% from the week before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, there is a significant decrease in terminal demand, and the market digestion is not smooth; In addition, the concentrated slaughter of pig sources before the Spring Festival and during the holiday period resulted in a slight increase in the number of large pigs being slaughtered. At the same time, as the weather warms up, slaughter companies are weakening their ability to digest large pigs, and large pigs are facing the phenomenon of having value but no market. The enthusiasm of the breeding side to sell pigs has increased, which has led to a significant increase in pig trading in many places. In terms of demand, the construction of key domestic pig slaughtering enterprises rose first and then fell this week, with an average operating rate of 22.85%, a decrease of 14.2 percentage points from the previous week. After the Spring Festival holiday, terminal demand significantly decreased compared to before the holiday. Coupled with the impact of snowfall in northern regions, sales of slaughter enterprises slowed down, orders recovered slowly, and production started to rise first and then decline.

Hehe Futures believes that after the holiday, the inertia of consumer demand in the pig market has fallen, downstream white bars are difficult to sell, and residents mainly rely on consumption and hoarding. The daily operating volume of slaughter enterprises is relatively low, but the slaughter rate at the breeding end is still high, and the frozen inventory rate of slaughter enterprises is high, with average digestion and poor trade performance. The market has abundant pig resources, but consumer demand has weakened, and the pig market has once again returned to a situation of oversupply. Based on the analysis of the inventory of sows capable of breeding in the early stage, the number of live pigs slaughtered will begin to decrease from the second quarter, and there is a possibility of an increase in pig prices.

Xinhu Futures believes that the spot price of live pigs has fallen significantly this week, and the market trend has been somewhat differentiated. After the year, the inertia of pork demand has fallen. In the early part of this week, due to the impact of cold weather, the transportation of live pigs was hindered, and the price decline was relatively slow. However, due to poor demand, it was difficult for white strips to be sold, and the price decline increased in the later part of this week. After the year, the enthusiasm of the breeding end to sell at a low price is still high, the supply of pigs in the market is sufficient, and the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival has limited price boost.

Zhuochuang Information expects the market to stabilize after a decline in the coming week, with limited support from the demand side and high enthusiasm for pig farming. Pig prices may slightly decrease compared to the previous week. In terms of supply, some breeding enterprises have poor completion of their plans, and due to the impact of snowfall and poor slaughter, some live pigs have been passively trapped. After the road is restored, the supply of live pigs may be relatively sufficient, which will still have an impact on the market. However, at the same time, after the continuous decline in the pig market prices, some low-priced areas may generate some resistance to the decline, which to some extent restricts the extent of the decline in pig prices. The price decline in the later part of the week may narrow and locally stabilize. In terms of demand, the terminal order digestion speed of slaughter enterprises is slow, and in recent days, some enterprises have shown a decline again after a brief recovery in slaughter volume. After the snowfall weather ends and road transportation resumes, the order volume may improve slightly, and there may be a slight increase in demand, but the impact on pig prices is still relatively weak.